If you have turned on any National Hockey League game this season you most likely have been bombarded with sports betting commercials. (If you have not, please let me know where you watch the games so I can escape these incessant advertisements.) Sports gambling, particularly in the NHL, has exploded in popularity, and I recognize that having some money on a game makes the action more exciting to watch. However, I do not gamble because I have tried in the past and failed miserably. So I watch these commercials as someone without any stake in the game, so to speak. Seeing these advertisements every night led me to a realization: the entire premise of betting on the NHL is that you think you know what will happen in the future. Or, better said, you can predict the outcome of a particular scenario. As anyone who has placed money on hockey knows, however, it is not an easy sport to predict.
There are two reasons for this. First, the parity across the league means that most nights any team can beat any team. Second, at an individual level, hockey is difficult to play. It is hard to be good at hockey and even harder to be consistently good. That is why players like Sidney Crosby, who has been elite for nearly two decades, deserve as much praise as we can heap on them. Conversely, remembering how difficult hockey is allows us to take a look at three talented players who are struggling to follow up on stellar performances last year. The purpose of this piece is not to criticize these players. Rather, I want to preach patience and explore how each player’s drop in production fits into his team’s remainder of the season.
Matthew Tkachuk
Matthew Tkachuk took the NHL by storm in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He scored four game-winning goals while leading the Florida Panthers to a surprise Stanley Cup Finals appearance against the Vegas Golden Knights. Though the Panthers lost, Tkachuk finished the postseason with 24 points (11 goals, 13 assists) in 20 games and proved he made the right decision to leave the Calgary Flames.
Expectations were high for Tkachuk heading into the 2023-24 season. His playoff performance came off back-to-back seasons with more than 100 points. The Panthers also carried the burden of proving that their run to the Finals was not a fluke. So far they have achieved that, sitting in second place in the Atlantic Division and sixth in the entire league. Tkachuk’s start has been less than ideal. He has notched four goals in 26 games, and his 19 points are well off his expected pace. There is no need to panic though if you are a Panthers fan. Remember, hockey is difficult, and consistency is the most difficult. Tkachuk’s underlying numbers reveal he is due to rebound.
The first number to indicate Tkachuk’s slump will end is his shooting percentage (goals/shots on goal). His 3.9% this season sits well below his career average of 12.4% and even further below last season’s 16.6%. Shooting percentage is insightful because all things being equal, players’ numbers tend to stay the same. A dip or spike reveals either a slump or an overperformance, so we can expect a return to the mean. Tkachuk is not injured (he recovered from the broken sternum he sustained and played through in the Cup Finals). He attempts four shots on goal per game, roughly the same as last year. Furthermore, Tkachuk has yet to net a power-play goal this season. All this to say, at some point he will return to his elite form. He is simply in a slump because, again, hockey is difficult.
Florida Panther fans should not worry because the team is succeeding without Tkachuk’s usual production. When Tkachuk finds his stride, the Panthers will be an even deadlier threat.
Jason Robertson
The Dallas Stars selected Jason Robertson 39th overall in 2017. It took until the 2021-22 season for Robertson to break out and make himself a household name. The winger notched 41 goals that year and followed up with 46 goals and 63 assists in his next campaign. His superstar play earned him a bid to the NHL All-Star Game in 2023. He carried that play into the playoffs with seven goals and 11 assists in 19 games, helping the Stars reach the Western Conference Finals. On a team with expectations to compete for the Stanley Cup, Robertson carries much of the weight on his shoulders, and he has proved more than capable the past two seasons.
Robertson’s precise and powerful shot is one of his most potent offensive assets. It is how he has scored 87 goals in the last two seasons. Now we must return to the mantra of this piece: hockey is hard. The NHL boasts the best players in the world who adapt to each other. After two seasons of scoring at a torrent pace, Robertson is no longer an under-the-radar player. Opponents now deploy their best forwards and defensemen against him, making the game more challenging for the 24 year old. His offensive prowess no longer catches teams by surprise.
Perhaps this is why Robertson has only netted 8 goals in 26 games this season, well below the .56 goals per game he posted last season. He is taking fewer shots on goal (2.5 per game compared to 3.8 last season) and attempting fewer shots as well (6.9 last season versus 5.7). These numbers may not seem like substantial drops, but they reveal that Robertson is dealing with less time and space on the ice. Alongside the offensive struggles, he sits at a minus-5 on the season. He finished at a plus-37 last season, indicating he generated much more offense than a lack of defense.
Returning to sports gambling highlights how fickle this sport is. Robertson’s over/under for goals this season was 34.5, a number he should blow out of the water based on his past two seasons. Right now, he is on pace for 25. I could not find odds on this bet, but I want to propose it anyway. If I had given you the opportunity to bet that Jason Robertson would score more goals than Michael Carcone, you would have said, “Who is Michael Carcone?” (No offense, Mr. Carcone, you are having an unbelievable season!) The undrafted Arizona Coyote forward has netted 13 goals in 25 games, five more than Robertson.
There is reason for optimism. Jason Roberston has scored two goals and two assists in five games this December. Much like the Florida Panthers, the Dallas Stars are doing quite well despite Robertson’s struggles, sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference. The team will be an even tougher opponent when Jason Robertson resurges.
Tage Thompson
The final player I would like to investigate is Tage Thompson. I will admit my bias up front: he is my favorite of this group. He has battled through adversity in his professional and personal life. The St. Louis Blues traded him early in his career, he recovered from a tough shoulder injury, and his wife was diagnosed with cancer. Mind you, Thompson is 26 years old, so that is a lot to deal with at a young age. ESPN released a wonderful short documentary diving into his story. Unfortunately, this season more troubles have come his way.
After a breakout season with 47 goals and 47 assists last year, Thompson has 15 points in 19 games so far. He has missed nine games already and has yet to play an entire season in his career. His shooting percentage is down but his shots on goal per game is up by nearly a factor of two. On a team struggling like the Buffalo Sabres, Thompson’s numbers could indicate some underlying frustration. Last season, he had 39 penalty minutes in 78 games. He already has 10 this year. A small uptick I admit, but, combined with his minus-6 statistic, it shows he is spending more time taking penalties and giving up goals.
If you watched the Sabres last season you would have seen Tage Thompson take over and dominate games. That dominance has disappeared this season. In fairness, Buffalo is struggling as a team, so the fault is not all Thompson’s. It can be difficult to find form after an injury, and, much like Robertson, teams are much more aware of Thompson on the ice. Thompson is taking on a more complete role with the Sabres as well. He averages 2:20 minutes of short-handed ice time per game this season after averaging 35 seconds last year. He also boasts two short-handed goals.
Expectations were high for the Buffalo Sabres coming into this season. Tage Thompson is a significant reason for that. His struggles reflect the team’s struggles. He is, however, rounding out into a more complete player that will help his team in more ways than simply scoring goals. The Sabres need him to do that more if they want to find success. Again, for one of the last times, hockey is difficult, and Thompson is juggling increased coverage from opponents, more short-handed ice time, and a return from injury. Give him time to figure it out. It will be worth the patience.
Do Not Let Sports Betting Trick You
Sports gambling can fool you into thinking you are a hockey guru. It tempts you with past performances and statistics and preys on your knowledge of the sport to create a false sense of confidence. All to take your money. I am having fun and being dramatic. Though it is true to an extent. Looking into these three players’ seasons demonstrates to us that you really do not know what is going to happen on any given night in the NHL. I am confident that Matthew Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, and Tage Thompson will remain offensive gems. But they certainly are not living up to the expectations created by previous seasons. How many people truly could have seen that coming?
Jabobber Hockey 
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